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Bitcoin today, October 6, 2026

In shortBitcoin is trading near $85,800: down 0.3% on the day, up 2.8% on the week, and the second attempt this week to clear $87,000 (high $86,999) has failed again. Tuesday night and the session ahead bring no major releases (ADP in the evening, Fed minutes not until Wednesday), funding is near zero, Fear & Greed stands at 70, and the market is pinned between long liquidations below $85,000 and a short cluster near $90,000. The base case for the day is a $84,500-87,400 range with a slight tilt toward a pullback if Treasury yields keep climbing.
$85,972
24h -0.7%7d +3.0%30d +7.7%
120 days of daily closes; dashed — EMA 20 and EMA 50. Binance, updated Oct 05, 22:18 UTC.
Fear & Greed
70
greed, yesterday 65
Funding
-0.001%
30-day avg 0.005%
Open interest
$8.12B
24h +1.6%
From ATH
-31.8%
ATH $126,080
Max pain
$78,000
expiry Oct 30
RSI (1D)
46
neutral

1Price and market

  1. 1BTC price $85,806 (Binance, BTCUSDT spot, Oct 5 21:18 UTC), down 0.26% over 24h; daily range $84,972-86,999.Binance
  2. 2Week +2.76%, 30 days +7.48%; weekly high $87,220, low $82,776; 30-day high $87,395 (Sep 21), low $74,968.Binance
  3. 3Binance spot volume over 24h: 17,412 BTC (~$1.50 billion); CoinDesk put aggregate 24h BTC volume at $10.69 billion as of Oct 5 04:24 EDT.CoinDesk
  4. 4Monday, Oct 5, opened at $86,513 (+2.1% vs Sunday's open); price came up ~$500 short of the late-September peak and slipped back below $86,000, the second stall of the rally this week (Yahoo Finance, Oct 5).Yahoo Finance
  5. 5Intraday high $86,969, followed by a sharp drop from $86,615 to $85,503 in under 20 minutes after the rejection at resistance (Bitcoin.com, Oct 5).Bitcoin.com
  6. 6BTC market cap $1.72 trillion, dominance 58.65%; total crypto market cap $2.93 trillion, down 1.85% on the day (CoinGecko, Oct 5).CoinGecko
  7. 7The $126,080 ATH was set exactly one year ago, on Oct 6, 2025; the current price is 32.0% below the peak and down 30.1% year over year (CoinGecko).CoinGecko
  8. 8October has started better than the seasonal norm: +1.4% over the first three days versus an average of -0.66%; the average October since 2013 is +17%, but the three negative Octobers averaged -13% (FXStreet, Oct 5).FXStreet

2Technical analysis

  1. 9Daily RSI(14) at 45.2, neutral territory with no overheating after the pullback from $87,000 (Binance, daily candles).Binance
  2. 10MACD 1,996 versus signal 2,063, histogram -67: upside momentum is fading, an early bearish signal on the daily (Binance).Binance
  3. 11EMA20 $83,319, EMA50 $79,171, EMA200 $75,075, 50-week MA $77,194; price sits above all averages and the trend is up; the EMA50/200 golden cross printed on Sep 13, 2026 (Binance).Binance
  4. 12Nearest resistance $87,000-87,400 (Sep 21 and Oct 5 highs), then the yearly open at ~$87,500, followed by $90,000 and $95,000 (FXStreet, Oct 5).FXStreet
  5. 13Supports: $84,970 (daily low), $83,300 (EMA20), $82,500-82,800 (weekly low and FXStreet level), then $79,200 (EMA50).Binance
  6. 14The QCP desk puts the threshold for continued upside at $87,200; price remains below the 2026 yearly open (Bitcoin News Digest, Oct 5).Bitcoin News Digest
  7. 15BTC Radar fractals (Oct 5): 6 similar two-week historical stretches, higher in 5 of 6 cases, median +5.7% over the following 2 weeks; on a 50-day window 4 of 6 up, median +8.5%; on a six-month window 4 of 6 up, median +22.5%.BTC Radar
  8. 16Glassnode (Oct 4): the largest short-liquidation cluster sits near $90,000, a magnet on a break above $87,400.Crypto Briefing

3Derivatives

  1. 17BTC liquidations over 24h ~$109 million: shorts $62 million, longs $47 million (CoinGlass via Bitcoin.com, Oct 5); across the whole crypto market, shorts $122 million, longs $116 million.CoinGlass
  2. 18Over the Oct 3-4 weekend $62.7 million was liquidated, 68% of it shorts (CoinGlass, Bitcoin News Digest Oct 5); on Oct 4 the daily market-wide liquidation volume reached $433.6 million.Bitcoin News Digest
  3. 19Binance BTCUSDT funding is currently -0.00004% (near zero), 30-day average +0.0047%; no overcrowded longs (Binance Futures, Oct 5).Binance
  4. 20Binance BTCUSDT open interest 94,503 BTC ($8.11 billion): +1.6% on the day, +6.0% on the week; positions are being built while price stands still (Binance Futures).Binance
  5. 21Binance account long/short ratio 1.015 (50.4% long); top traders at 1.81 in favor of longs; taker buy/sell 1.07 (Binance Futures, Oct 5).Binance
  6. 22Mark price $85,769, index $85,791; futures basis to spot is flat (Binance Futures).Binance
  7. 23Glassnode Market Pulse (Sep 28): market-wide futures OI $38.9 billion, perp CVD -$261.5 million (a shift toward selling), funding paid by longs fell 53% on the week.Glassnode

4Options

  1. 24Deribit BTC options open interest 356,996 BTC ($30.6 billion); put/call by OI 0.56, with the book skewed toward calls (Deribit, Oct 5).Deribit
  2. 25DVOL 36.2 versus 35.1 a week ago: implied volatility is low, and the market is not pricing sharp moves (Deribit).Deribit
  3. 26Daily expiry Oct 6: 2,880 BTC, max pain $86,000, put/call 1.36; Oct 7: 678 BTC, max pain $86,000 (Deribit).Deribit
  4. 27The next sizable expiry is Friday, Oct 9: 21,581 BTC, max pain $84,000, put/call 1.11, slightly below the current price (Deribit).Deribit
  5. 28Monthly expiry Oct 30: 125,009 BTC (35% of total OI), max pain $78,000, put/call 0.40; in late September CoinDesk estimated max pain at ~$76,000 (Deribit).Deribit
  6. 29Oct 16 expiry: 7,907 BTC, max pain $85,000; Nov 27: 20,395 BTC, max pain $80,000 (Deribit).Deribit
  7. 30Large trade: a $3.2 million butterfly via Paradigm, long $90,000 and $100,000 calls, short 2x $95,000 calls expiring Oct 30, a bet on $95,000 by end of October (CoinDesk, Sep 22); OI is concentrated in the $85K/$90K/$95K/$100K calls.CoinDesk
  8. 31Glassnode (Sep 28): options OI $44.4 billion, 25-delta skew +2.39% (mild demand for puts), volatility spread -10.7%.Glassnode

5ETFs and institutions

  1. 32Spot BTC ETFs on Friday, Oct 2: +$189.9 million (revised data), IBIT +$158.2 million, FBTC +$29.3 million, Morgan Stanley +$2.4 million (Farside).Farside
  2. 33Prior sessions: Oct 1 +$102.7 million (IBIT +$195.6 million, FBTC -$60.7 million), Sep 30 -$148.7 million (FBTC -$125.6 million); Thursday-Friday combined +$292.6 million, roughly 3,400 BTC (Farside).Farside
  3. 34Week ending Oct 2: BTC ETFs +$253 million, IBIT +$356 million, FBTC -$74 million; total crypto ETF AUM $136.28 billion, with iShares holding 58% of the market ($79.1 billion) (ETF Action, Oct 5).ETF Action
  4. 35September: +$2.65 billion into spot BTC ETFs; the prior week (through Sep 25) +$2.39-2.7 billion, the strongest streak of 2026, and cumulative year-to-date inflows turned positive for the first time (CryptoQuant/Farside, Glassnode).Glassnode
  5. 36Strategy bought 334 BTC for $28.7 million at an average $85,839 between Oct 1 and 4 ($15.7 million from MSTR share sales, $13.0 million cash); total holdings 848,000 BTC acquired for $63.97 billion at an average $75,441 (8-K, Oct 5).SEC
  6. 37Strive bought 2,000 BTC (~$169 million) at an average $84,422 between Sep 28 and Oct 2; holdings rose from 27,462 to 29,462 BTC, with an average portfolio cost of $90,170 (8-K, Oct 5).SEC
  7. 38Farside flow data for Monday, Oct 5, was not yet available at the time of the report; it is published overnight Moscow time.Farside

6Sentiment and on-chain

  1. 39Fear & Greed Index at 70 ("Greed"), 65 yesterday, 74 a week ago, 73 a month ago (alternative.me, Oct 5).alternative.me
  2. 40CryptoQuant (Oct 2): whale holdings grew by 75,000 BTC over 30 days; large holders are accumulating.FXStreet
  3. 41Glassnode: LTH-MVRV has not dropped below 1 at any point this cycle; for the first time since 2015, long-term holders stayed in profit through the entire bear market, and the indicator is rising again.Chaincatcher
  4. 42Glassnode: price is above the True Market Mean ($77,000) and the short-term holder cost basis, sitting just above the long-term holder supply block at $84,000-85,000; the next on-chain resistance is the MVRV mean price at $96,700.Glassnode
  5. 43Glassnode Market Pulse (Sep 28): supply in profit 74.0% (69.3% a week earlier), realized P/L 1.4, ETF MVRV 1.49, 640K active addresses per day, transfer volume $6.9 billion.Glassnode
  6. 44Glassnode calls the rally "early and speculative": spot volumes are the lowest since 2019, with no confirmation from fresh capital inflows (Benzinga, Oct 2026).Benzinga
  7. 45Long-term holder supply is ~74% of circulation, near multi-year highs; the "hot capital" share is 18.8% and the STH/LTH ratio 13.5% (Glassnode).Glassnode

7Mining

  1. 46Hashrate 969 EH/s (7-day), difficulty 132.72 T; block height 970,082 (mempool.space, Oct 5).mempool.space
  2. 47The difficulty retarget is expected on Oct 16, with 19% of the period elapsed and 1,630 blocks to go; the current estimate is +2.3%, the previous adjustment was -0.03% (mempool.space). With slow block production on Oct 5 (113 blocks in a day), other trackers estimate -5.8%; the spread is wide and the estimate shifts daily.mempool.space
  3. 48Fees are at rock bottom: 1 sat/vB for both next-block and one-hour confirmation; on-chain activity is weak (mempool.space).mempool.space
  4. 4979,918 blocks to the halving, estimated for Apr 12, 2028 (mempool.space).mempool.space
  5. 50Difficulty is 15% below the record 155.97 T (Oct 29, 2025); hashrate has held near ~1,000 EH/s since September (CoinWarz).CoinWarz

8Macro

  1. 51On Sep 16 the Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75-4.00% (12-0), the first hike since 2023; most of the FOMC expects one more hike before the end of 2026 (CNBC).CNBC
  2. 52Next Fed meeting Oct 27-28: a hold is priced at ~80%, a hike at ~21% (versus ~70% a week ago) per CME FedWatch and Kalshi; a December hike is priced at 74-78% (Oct 5).CME FedWatch
  3. 53September payrolls +29K (Oct 2), prior months revised down by 60K, unemployment 4.2% (from 4.1%), wages +3.0% YoY; the labor market is cooling (BLS via FX Macro Data).Fxmacrodata
  4. 54UST 10Y yield 5.31% (+0.6% on the day, the highest since 2002, CNBC Oct 5); UST 2Y 4.64% per Yahoo Finance, while other sources had 4.83% at the Oct 2 close; the data diverge, but the trend is up (+3% over 5 days).CNBC
  5. 55Dollar index DXY 102.12 (+0.19% on the day, +0.91% over 5 days); a firmer dollar weighs on risk assets (Yahoo Finance).Yahoo Finance
  6. 56S&P 500 7,774 (+0.66%), Nasdaq 27,477 (+1.05%), VIX 15.5; equities are at record highs and risk appetite is strong (Yahoo Finance, Oct 5).Yahoo Finance
  7. 57Gold $4,168 (+0.13%), WTI crude $89.3 (-2.0% on the day, -3.6% over 5 days) after the G7 decision to release 100 million barrels from reserves (Yahoo Finance, CNBC Oct 5).CNBC
  8. 58Treasury auctions this week: $58 billion in 3-year notes (Oct 6), $39 billion in 10-year notes (Oct 7), $22 billion in 30-year bonds (Oct 8); demand for long-dated debt with the 10Y above 5.3% will be a test (Bitcoin News Digest).Bitcoin News Digest
  9. 59Eurozone: inflation 3.8%, OAT-Bund spread ~130 bp, the widest since the euro crisis; stress in Europe's bond market (Modern Diplomacy, Oct 5).Moderndiplomacy

9Regulation and events

  1. 60On Oct 5 the CFTC proposed two rulebooks: Regulation CTX (margined and leveraged retail trading in crypto assets) and Regulation CAM (a new Crypto Asset Markets exchange category); the comment period is 60 days (CoinDesk).CoinDesk
  2. 61CFTC Chair Michael Selig: the agency is moving "with or without legislation"; the spot market still lacks a federal regulator after the CLARITY Act failed (Cointelegraph, Oct 5).Cointelegraph
  3. 62CLARITY Act: on Sep 15 the Senate rejected cloture 49-50 (60 needed), with Democrats opposed over the ethics of presidential crypto income; in late September the SEC proposed crypto asset custody rules (CoinDesk).CoinDesk
  4. 63Geopolitics: the US-Israel war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February; the Saudi-led coalition launched an operation against the Houthis after the strike on Aramco; Middle East oil exports have recovered above pre-war levels (Kpler, CNBC Oct 5).CNBC
  5. 64Calendar: Tue Oct 6, ADP (19:15 MSK (UTC+3)) and the 3Y auction; Wed Oct 7 21:00 MSK (UTC+3), minutes of the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting; Wed Oct 14 15:30 MSK (UTC+3), September CPI; Thu Oct 15, PPI; Oct 28, Fed decision (Trading Economics).Trading Economics
  6. 65ETH ETFs: $118 million of outflows over three sessions Sep 29-Oct 1 (Oct 1 -$55.4 million), but for the full week through Oct 2 ETF Action counted +$108 million; ETH ~$2,680-2,800, down 1% on the week (Farside, ETF Action).Farside
  7. 66Altcoins are lagging: altcoin ETFs fell 6.1% on the week despite $149 million of inflows; ETH dominance 11.3%, BTC 58.7%; capital is concentrating in bitcoin (ETF Action, CoinGecko).ETF Action

Forecast for October 6, 2026

Resistance
$87,400 / $90,000 / $95,000
Support
$84,900 / $83,300 / $82,500
Sideways 50%
Pullback 30%
Breakout 20%
Sideways50%base case
$84,500 — $87,400

Two failed attacks on $87,000 in a week, RSI at 45 with the MACD histogram near zero, DVOL at 36 and funding near zero: the market lacks momentum. Max pain at $86,000 for the daily expiry and $84,000 for Friday's keeps price inside the corridor. No macro releases during the session; the Fed minutes come only on Wednesday evening.

Pullback30%
$82,000 — $84,500

The UST 10Y is at its highest since 2002 (5.31%), the 2Y is rising, and the DXY is strengthening for a third day; the 3-year note auction could push yields higher. Glassnode's perp CVD has shifted toward selling and OI is growing while price stands still, fuel for a flush of longs below $85,000 toward the EMA20 at $83,300.

Breakout20%
$87,400 — $90,000

Whales added 75,000 BTC in a month, ETFs and treasury companies (Strategy, Strive) are buying, Fear & Greed is at 70, and the fractals point up in 5 of 6 cases. A hold above $87,400 (the yearly open) opens the way to the short-liquidation cluster near $90,000.

What to watch today
  • Farside BTC ETF flow data for Oct 5 (overnight to early morning Moscow time)
  • Deribit daily options expiry Oct 6 at 11:00 MSK (UTC+3), max pain $86,000
  • ADP employment at 19:15 MSK (UTC+3) and the $58 billion 3-year UST auction
  • UST 10Y move: holding above 5.3% weighs on risk
  • A break above $87,400 or a loss of $84,970 (daily low) as the signal for a scenario change
This is not investment advice. The forecast is recorded in the morning and never edited: after the daily close it is checked in the “Accuracy” section.

Fractals: what today’s chart looks like

We take the latest 4-hour Bitcoin candles and search the entire history since 2017 for stretches of the same shape, including ones that played out faster or slower. Then we look at what happened next. This is statistics of similar situations, not a prediction.

2 weeks: Closest matches in history
2024-08-24 — 2024-09-21: over 14 days: -1.6%, then +7.9%
2022-03-09 — 2022-03-19: over 14 days: +1.2%, then +13.7%
2026-04-26 — 2026-05-03: over 14 days: +0.8%, then +3.5%
50 days: Closest matches in history
2023-10-22 — 2023-11-15: over 50 days: +26.6%, then +11.8%
2019-03-31 — 2019-04-25: over 50 days: +32.3%, then +45.2%
2023-01-07 — 2023-04-16: over 50 days: +78.8%, then -3.5%
6 months: Closest matches in history
2018-08-04 — 2019-07-30: over 180 days: +29.9%, then -1.0%
2025-01-14 — 2025-05-28: over 180 days: +13.6%, then +4.2%
2022-10-02 — 2023-02-14: over 180 days: +13.4%, then +40.9%

All numbers

Live data from Binance, CoinGecko, Deribit, mempool.space, alternative.me and Yahoo Finance. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Market cap
$1.73T
dominance 58.7%, total market $2.94T
24h volume, Binance
$1.45B
16,885 BTC
Circulating supply
20,093,912 BTC
95.7% of 21M
Weekly high / low
$87,220 / $82,776
30-day $87,396 / $74,968
MACD (1D)
-57
line 2,009, signal 2,065
EMA 20 / 50 / 200
$83,334
$79,177 / $75,077
50-week moving average
$77,197
price above: bull phase
Long / short, Binance
1.02
longs 50.4%, top traders 1.81
Taker buy / sell
1.07
above 1: buyers more aggressive
Open interest, 7d
+6.0%
now 94,491 BTC
Put / call by open interest
0.56
options worth $30.70B
DVOL volatility
36.2
a week ago 35.1
Next big expiry
Oct 30
125,022 BTC, max pain $78,000, put/call 0.40
Hashrate
968 EH/s
difficulty 132.7 T
Next difficulty adjustment
+1.8%
around October 17, 2026, 1,626 blocks left
Transaction fee
3 sat/vB
block 970,086, 79,914 blocks to halving
US dollar index DXY
102.10
day +0.2%, week +0.9%
UST 10Y
5.31%
day +0.6%, week +1.4%
UST 2Y
4.64%
day +0.5%, week +3.0%
Gold
$4,170
day +0.2%, week +0.0%
WTI crude
$89.23
day -2.1%, week -3.6%
S&P 500
7,774
day +0.7%, week +1.2%
Nasdaq
27,477
day +1.1%, week +2.4%
VIX
15.5
day +1.4%, week -3.4%

Forecast accuracy

Every morning the scenarios are recorded; after the UTC daily close we check which range the price landed in. Misses are not hidden.

The first forecast is recorded. Once the trading day closes (00:00 UTC), this section will show which scenario played out. Statistics accumulate daily from there.

Brief archive

October 6, 2026